Russia is an aggressive threat; deterrence and rearmament are justified

This position holds that Russia is an aggressive, expansionist threat whose behaviour justifies deterrence, rearmament and sustained support for those it targets. Its advocates call for tighter sanctions, enforcement of the price cap, interdiction of the shadow fleet, use of frozen assets and a hardened response to sabotage and hybrid operations.

Western and allied outlets carry it, with US outlets on the Arctic strand. It appears in the confrontation between Russia and Europe, the sanctions regime against Russia, Russian hybrid and gray-zone operations, airspace incursions on NATO's eastern flank, NATO-Russia deterrence, Arctic competition and military build-up, and Russia's diplomatic confrontation with Europe, where it treats disinformation as a threat that demands vigilance.

The competing position holds that NATO's encirclement and provocations are the real aggression and that Russia acts defensively; the two share seven conflicts. Recent events show sanctions as a contested tool: the EU extended its sanctions but dropped two oligarchs, which Ukraine called unacceptable, and the US signed a sanctions law with tariff powers. They also show Poland finding a suspected Russian drone, with NATO saying it has all response options, and allies foiling a plot against Arctic subsea cables.