From the Arctic to the Black Sea, NATO and Russia are arming against each other. The alliance has moved from small tripwire units to standing brigades, its members have promised to more than double their military spending, and Finland and Sweden have joined. Russia has rebuilt the military districts facing them, placed new missiles in Belarus and lowered the stated threshold for using nuclear weapons. Each calls its own moves a response.
The wider confrontation, its history and each side's full account: Russia and Europe.
Where it stands · September 2026
Finland joined France's nuclear deterrence initiative on 14 September. Germany ordered soldiers to its brigade deployment in Lithuania the same day. On 18 September Germany received its first F-35 jet from the United States. France agreed on 22 September to open talks on Latvia joining the nuclear deterrence initiative. On 29 September Russia expanded its army and raised defense spending, and warned NATO of a nuclear response over the Kaliningrad blockade.
What the dispute is about
A classic security spiral. NATO's eastern members, who were ruled from Moscow within living memory, saw Ukraine invaded and conclude that only forces in place will deter the same. Russia sees the world's strongest alliance massing on its border, across a Baltic Sea that is now almost entirely NATO's, around its exclave of Kaliningrad. Behind it is an American question: if Washington's commitment weakens, Europe must replace it, including the nuclear part, and a Europe that does so is a different neighbour for Russia.
