NATO encirclement/provocation is the aggressor; Russia responds defensively

This position holds that NATO's eastward expansion and provocations are the real aggression, and that Russia's actions are a defensive response to an encroaching threat. Its advocates speak of NATO encirclement, describe claims of a Russian threat as manufactured or as Russophobia, and use words such as vassals and warmongers for European leaders.

Outlets associated with Russia carry it. It appears in the confrontation between Russia and Europe, in Russia's diplomatic clash with Europe, in airspace incursions on NATO's eastern flank, in the realignment of the South Caucasus and of Armenia away from Russia, in Arctic competition and the military build-up there, in NATO-Russia deterrence, which it calls encirclement, and in claims of Russian hybrid operations, which it calls Russophobia.

The competing position holds that Russia is an aggressive, expansionist threat whose behaviour justifies deterrence, rearmament and sustained support for those it targets. The two share seven conflicts. Recent events include a Russian warning of a nuclear response if Kaliningrad is blockaded, which NATO dismissed as irresponsible, a US agreement on two new military bases in Greenland, and a Russian and Chinese veto of UN monitoring of Iran sanctions.