The Kola peninsula, in Russia's far north-west, holds the largest concentration of nuclear weapons on earth: the submarines that would fire back if Russia were attacked. Everything Russia has built in the Arctic since 2007 is arranged to protect them. Across the border lie Norway, a founder of NATO, and since 2023 Finland, which added thirteen hundred kilometres to the alliance's frontier with Russia. Both sides exercise more, fly more and build more than at any time since the Cold War, and the agreements that once kept their forces apart in the north have lapsed.
The wider region and the powers in it: The Arctic.
Where it stands · September 2026
Denmark deployed conscripts to Greenland. Norway seized a Russian Arctic ship over a 4.2 billion dollar Ukraine compensation claim by Naftogaz. European Union leaders met to set a new Arctic policy. The United States signed an Arctic security deal with Denmark and Greenland. Russia began oil exports from its Vostok Arctic project.
What the dispute is about
The bastion. Russia's doctrine is to control the Barents Sea and beyond in a crisis so that its missile submarines can survive. NATO's is to hold the gap between Greenland, Iceland and Britain so that Russian attack submarines cannot reach the Atlantic convoys. The two plans overlap on the same water.
Who started it. Each side dates the build-up from the other's move: Russia's flag and bombers in 2007, or NATO's enlargement; Russia's new bases, or the allied exercises that answer them.
Below the threshold. Jammed navigation signals over northern Norway and Finland, cut cables, unexplained drones over bases. Russia denies them. None has been proved in court.