Cuba's constitution names the Communist Party the leading force of society and the state, and allows no other. Fidel Castro ruled for forty-seven years and his brother Raul for ten more. Since 2018 the president has been Miguel Diaz-Canel, an engineer born after the revolution, with Raul Castro, now ninety-five, and the generals who run the economy's profitable parts behind him. Under the hardest pressure since 1962, the government has in 2026 freed prisoners, talked to the CIA and legalised large private business, while insisting that the system itself is not on the table.
The wider conflict and each side's full account: Cuba and the United States.
Where it stands · September 2026
On 2 September 2026 Cuba authorized the creation of private companies with more than 100 workers, part of the economic reforms of its government. On 10 September 2026 the United States proposed an oil deal to Cuba in exchange for ousting President Díaz-Canel. Both measures stand as of September 2026. The first changes the permitted size of private enterprise on the island. The second sets a condition on oil supply from Washington.
What the dispute is about
Reform or replacement. Washington's stated aim is the end of the communist system. Havana's offer is economic opening and prisoner releases with the party in place. Whether there is a bargain between those two has been tested all year, in secret and in public.
Who would come after. There is no legal opposition, no independent press, and the best known dissidents are in prison or abroad. A collapse would leave the army, which also owns the hotels, the ports and the foreign exchange shops.
How much Cubans will bear. They protested in 2021 and in March 2026. The more common answer has been to leave.
