Americas

The contest over the Arctic as retreating sea ice opens once-inaccessible waters, seabed and sea lanes to competition among the eight Arctic states and China. Four axes run through it: the militarization of the High North and NATO's northern expansion, the race for Arctic hydrocarbons and critical minerals, control of the emerging shipping routes, and the confrontation over Greenland that has strained transatlantic relations. Coverage is sharply divided — Western outlets frame Russian and Chinese activity as encroachment requiring deterrence, while Moscow and Beijing frame NATO's build-up and the US Greenland push as the destabilizing provocation.

Australia's strategic position between its largest trading partner and its principal security ally. Four axes run through it: the contest with China over the security and diplomatic alignment of the Pacific island states; a trade relationship in which iron ore, beef and critical minerals carry both dependence and leverage; the contested assessment of Chinese espionage and military reach; and the AUKUS submarine programme, whose revision has made alliance reliability a domestic Australian question. Coverage divides between Australian and Western outlets, Chinese state media, and — on AUKUS — Australian critics of the pact itself.

Colombia's external alignment, its contested presidential transition, and the negotiations with armed groups and drug cartels.

The confrontation between the United States and Cuba, comprising the US sanctions and blockade instruments applied to the island, the energy and humanitarian crisis on it, the outside states supplying it, the threat of US military action, and the Cuban government's internal position.

The eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo have been contested for three decades by armed groups, the Congolese state and neighbouring governments. The current phase combines the M23 insurgency and its disputed external backing, an externally brokered mediation and sanctions track, and competition over the cobalt, coltan and copper deposits that sit in and around the same territory. The United States, China, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi and the United Nations mission are all engaged.

The widening rift between the United States and its European allies under a Washington that treats Europe more as a competitor than a partner. It runs along four axes: a tariff and trade confrontation; a dispute over defence burden-sharing and the credibility of the US security guarantee; Europe's answering drive for strategic autonomy and rearmament; and a clash over technology regulation and digital sovereignty. Beneath them runs a deeper question of whether the transatlantic alliance that defined the post-war order still holds — a fracture Moscow and Beijing cover with schadenfreude.

Competition among external powers -- the United States, China and the European Union -- for trade terms, resource access, infrastructure contracts and control of strategic ports across Latin America.

Gang control of the capital, mass displacement and the politics of international stabilisation.

The Horn of Africa is being reordered by overlapping disputes: the contested international status of Somaliland, an unresolved confrontation between Ethiopia and its northern and downstream neighbours, and the uneven reconstruction of the Somali state. Outside powers -- Israel, Turkey, Egypt, the Gulf states, the United States and China -- are all party to at least one of them.

The unresolved confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, where the Korean War was halted by an armistice rather than concluded by a peace treaty. Five axes run through it: North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programme and the sanctions architecture built around it; the United States-South Korea alliance, with its exercises, command arrangements and extended-deterrence commitments; North Korea's military alignment with Russia, including troop deployments to the war in Ukraine; China's economic and diplomatic patronage of Pyongyang; and the inter-Korean relationship itself, which North Korea has redefined constitutionally as a relationship between separate states. Coverage divides by bloc: Western, South Korean and Japanese outlets report the Northern programme as a threat requiring containment, while Russian and Chinese state media present Pyongyang's arrangements with Moscow and Beijing as lawful cooperation between sovereign states.

The confrontation between Russia and European states and institutions outside the direct Ukraine battlefield: NATO military posture on the eastern flank, below-threshold gray-zone activity, contested airspace over NATO territory, and the sanctions regime imposed on Russia since 2022. Participants include Russia, NATO and EU member states along the eastern flank (Baltic, Nordic, Visegrad), Germany, France, the UK, and the United States.

The Russia-Ukraine war (initiated 24 February 2022) and its surrounding contest of framings: battlefield operations, the campaign against energy and infrastructure on both sides, Western military and economic aid, peace negotiations, anti-corruption investigations of Ukrainian officials, and the sanctions regime on Russia. The scope of the war itself is contested vocabulary — Ukrainian/Western framing as full-scale invasion versus Russian framing as a limited special military operation. Coverage spans Ukrainian, Russian, Western mainstream, Eastern European, and Global South press with sharply divergent vocabularies for the same events.

The Sahel and Lake Chad basin as a single conflict zone: jihadist insurgency, Tuareg separatism in northern Mali, military governments consolidating power after successive coups, the competition to replace France as the region's security patron, and the rupture of relations with Paris.

The South Caucasus -- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia -- at the intersection of Russian, Turkish, Iranian and Euro-Atlantic interests. The region carries several unresolved disputes: the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict centred on Nagorno-Karabakh, the question of Armenia's alignment between the Russian-led blocs and the European Union, the status of Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, transit corridors across the region, and competition among external powers over influence, energy routes and security ties. It has seen repeated wars, including the Nagorno-Karabakh wars and the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.

The dispute over Taiwan's political status and the military, diplomatic and economic contest surrounding it. Beijing claims the island as Chinese territory and has not renounced the use of force to take it; Taipei governs the island separately and rejects that claim. The contest spans Chinese military and coast guard activity around the island and the deterrence response to it; the scope and reliability of United States arms supply and security policy; political influence activity directed at Taiwan and the contest over it among the island's parties; and Taiwan's diplomatic recognition and participation in international organisations. The United States and Japan are parties to the security dimension without maintaining formal diplomatic relations with Taipei.

Conflicts over the powers, staffing and rules of United States federal institutions, and over how those institutions treat people inside the country. Covers the courts and executive authority, the central bank, election administration, immigration enforcement in the interior, federal personnel, the security of political figures, media regulation, and the investigation of elite networks. Foreign coverage treats these as indicators of American reliability and of the standards Washington applies abroad.

The confrontation between the United States and Canada across trade, sovereignty and the internal cohesion of the Canadian federation. Three axes run through it: tariffs and the renegotiation of the trilateral trade agreement; rhetoric about annexation and statehood alongside disputes over jointly financed border infrastructure; and a secession movement in Alberta whose organisers have held contacts with American officials. The two economies are deeply integrated and the two states are treaty allies, which is what makes the dispute distinct from an ordinary trade conflict.

The bilateral economic and technological contest between the United States and China: tariffs and trade investigations, export controls on advanced semiconductors, the competition over artificial intelligence, dependence on Chinese critical-mineral supply, and the leader-level diplomacy conducted alongside them. Both governments hold and use restrictive instruments — Washington licenses access to advanced chips and design tools, Beijing licenses rare-earth exports and decides on market access and foreign acquisitions. The geographic flashpoints where the two also compete are carried by separate theaters.

Confrontation between the United States and Mexico across three fronts: the cartel war and Mexico's security response, US intervention pressure against Mexico's sovereignty, and tariff, border and migration leverage.

The bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia, treated as a subject in its own right: the diplomatic channel between Washington and Moscow, the American sanctions instruments applied to Russian energy and finance, and the nuclear arms-control framework the two states share. Distinct from the war in Ukraine, which is covered by its own theater, though the two intersect constantly.

Venezuela's contested trajectory after the US operation that removed Nicolás Maduro: the mandate of the interim administration, the reopening of the oil sector, the legality of the intervention, and the unresolved Essequibo claim against Guyana.