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The Syrian government under al-Sharaa is consolidating control through a volatile mix of military pressure, political integration with Kurdish forces, and economic outreach to regional partners, while the US and Turkey pursue divergent security and economic agendas.
January 2026
Week of Jan 26, compared to 12-week average
supportive of Syrian government
Syria is pursuing regional economic integration to rebuild its war-torn infrastructure. The government is importing clinker from Egypt and hosting a Syrian economic delegation in Cairo to discuss building materials cooperation, while Türkiye is restructuring border gates and boosting exports to Syria. This push is offset by the collapse of major private investment, as seen with Al Habtoor Group ceasing all operations in Lebanon.
Syrian politics are dominated by high-stakes diplomacy with Kurdish forces and external powers. Talks between the Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces collapsed but were followed by a new integration deal, while President al-Sharaa secured high-level meetings with Putin in the Kremlin. Concurrently, the US and Turkey are engaged, with Trump and Erdogan discussing Syria and a US senator proposing new sanctions.
Security dynamics are defined by a fragile ceasefire between the Syrian army and Kurdish-led forces following significant government advances. The Syrian army moved into Kurdish-held areas, taking key towns, infrastructure, and a prison, before agreeing to an immediate and then a four-day ceasefire. In parallel, the US is conducting large-scale strikes against Islamic State and transferring thousands of ISIS detainees from Syria to Iraq.
Societal tensions center on the precarious status and rights of the Kurdish minority amid shifting government policies. President al-Sharaa declared Kurdish a national language and granted Kurdish Syrians citizenship rights, which followed protests by Syrian Kurds over expulsions after deadly clashes. The opening of a humanitarian corridor to Kobane indicates a tentative move toward stabilization following conflict.
