Russia

Russia's economy is under severe pressure from a major disruption to its key energy export market. The US-India trade deal, which sees India agreeing to stop buying Russian oil, threatens a critical revenue stream, as confirmed by Russian statements questioning the move. Concurrently, the state is aggressively asserting digital sovereignty by blocking WhatsApp and systematically pressuring Telegram to comply with censorship demands.

• 26Trump says he will cut tariffs on India after Modi agrees to stop buying Russian oil
• 15Russia blocks WhatsApp, promotes its own messaging app
• 11Russian officials say Telegram ignored content removal requests but won't be blocked yet
• 10Russia sets conditions for Telegram to avoid total block
• 10Russia slows down Telegram and threatens fines over data rules

Russian diplomacy, led by the foreign minister, is actively engaged in high-stakes but contentious peace negotiations over Ukraine while maintaining a confrontational rhetorical stance toward the West. Talks in Geneva involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US ended without a deal amid conflicting accounts. The period also featured high-level diplomatic engagement, including calls between Xi Jinping and Putin.

• 31Russian foreign minister criticizes UN and comments on Ukraine war
• 18Russia, Ukraine, and US prepare for new round of peace talks in Geneva
• 16Russia criticizes Western diplomacy but says it's open to talks
• 11U.S. and allies say Russia poisoned Navalny with frog toxin in prison
• 11Medvedev says Russia does not want a global conflict

Russia's security environment is marked by intense military escalation in Ukraine and a breakdown in strategic stability with the US, alongside domestic terrorist attacks. Russia launched its largest missile and drone strike of the year on Ukraine and intensified attacks on energy infrastructure. The expiration of the last US-Russia nuclear treaty has raised arms race fears, while a general was shot in Moscow and a suicide bombing killed a police officer.

• 38Russian general shot multiple times in Moscow attack
• 24European countries say Russia poisoned Navalny with frog toxin
• 19Zelensky says Putin failed to break Ukraine as war enters fifth year
• 16Suicide bombing outside Moscow train station kills police officer
• 11U.S.-Russia nuclear arms treaty expires, ending decades of weapons limits

Russian society is a primary battleground for state-driven information campaigns, with disoperations targeting foreign audiences and nationalist narratives promoted domestically. The dominant tension is between the Kremlin's projection of a unified national identity and its use of sophisticated disinformation, as highlighted by allegations of Russian involvement in spreading false claims about Macron and analyses of its fine-tuned wartime propaganda.

• 3Milano Cortina: Italy against Russian athletes at Paralympics with flags
• 3Lavrov dismisses allegations that Epstein was Russian spy as ‘yellow journalism’
• 3Epstein, Barak spoke on moving ‘million Russians’ to Israel
• 2Ukraine war: Four years of defying Putin - the civilians who grabbed hunting rifles when the tanks came | World News
• 2Kremlin says Russians now better understand their roots