Military pressure around Taiwan

Every day Taiwan's defence ministry publishes how many Chinese military aircraft and ships came near the island in the previous twenty-four hours. The numbers have risen year by year since 2020. China no longer respects the unofficial line down the middle of the strait that both air forces kept to for decades, has rehearsed blockades in large exercises, and in 2026 made coast guard patrols off Taiwan's eastern, Pacific coast a routine. None of it is war. All of it changes, a little at a time, what counts as normal.

The wider dispute and each side's full account: Taiwan.

Where it stands · September 2026

In September 2026 China conducted a marine geophysical survey east of Taiwan Island, and the China Coast Guard patrolled the same waters later in the month. Taiwan held its first joint military drills using attack drones and validated a joint precision-strike kill chain in a tri-service live-fire exercise. New Zealand naval ships transited the Taiwan Strait.

What the dispute is about

Whose water and air. China says the strait and the seas around Taiwan are its own waters, where its coast guard enforces Chinese law. Taiwan, the United States, Japan and others treat most of the strait as international water open to all.

Pressure below the threshold. Coast guard cutters instead of destroyers, research ships, sand dredgers, balloons, cables cut by dragging anchors. Each act is too small to answer with force, and together they wear down Taiwan's forces and its claim to control its surroundings.

Rehearsal or signal. Whether the exercises are practice for a blockade or a landing, or messages timed to Taiwanese and American politics. Usually both.

How each side explains it

Beijing's account

Chinese forces operate in Chinese waters and airspace. There is no median line, because there is no border within one country. The exercises answer specific provocations: visits by American politicians, arms sales, speeches by Taiwan's leader that describe two states. They are aimed at separatists and their foreign backers, not at Taiwanese compatriots. It is the American and Japanese warships, thousands of kilometres from home, that militarise the strait.

In our coverage

Taiwan, the SCS and the Senkakus are Chinese territory; foreign interference provokes →60 headlines
Covered by:Global Times · China Daily · CGTN · RT · People's Daily · TASS

Taipei's account

China is changing the status quo by force, metre by metre, and calling it law enforcement. Its aircraft approach within minutes of the coast; its coast guard boards Taiwanese boats near the outlying islands; its exercises practise sealing the island's ports. Taiwan responds with restraint, tracks every intrusion, extends conscription and buys the mobile weapons, drones and missiles that would make an assault too costly to try.

In our coverage

What each account leaves out

Beijing's leaves out that its own air force kept to the median line for decades; that in 2022 it fired missiles over the island, some of which landed in Japan's economic zone; and that it calls law enforcement the patrolling of waters it has never administered.

Taipei's leaves out that American intelligence says China has no plan to invade in 2027, the date often cited; that Taiwan kept conscription at four months until 2024 and let its reserves decay; and that the governing party also uses the threat in domestic politics, branding opponents as Beijing's agents.

Washington's and Tokyo's leaves out that Beijing counts each visit, transit and sale as the other side's salami slice; and that the munitions and ships a Taiwan crisis would need have been drawn down by the wars in Ukraine and Iran.

The ledger

China

Wanted: to deter independence and show that the island cannot be defended.
Gained: a presence all around Taiwan that no one now treats as exceptional.
Paid: a Taiwan, a Japan and a Philippines that arm faster and coordinate more with each new patrol.

Taiwan

Wanted: to keep its surroundings its own.
Did: tracked, scrambled, published.
Gained: attention and arms.
Paid: worn-out pilots and airframes, and a public that has learned to ignore the daily count.

The United States and Japan

Words in dispute

Names and terms the sides do not share. This page keeps them out of its own voice.

law enforcement patrol / incursion
median line
grey zone
joint combat readiness patrol / drills
freedom of navigation / provocation
blockade / quarantine

Events per week

Per-week distribution of events. Click a bar to see that week's top events.

Click a week bar to select. Light blue = active week.

Week of Sep 28, 2026(9)

Taiwan receives first two F-16V fighter jets from the US

15 sourcesOct 2, 2026

US Officials Say Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Unlikely Before 2028

6 sourcesOct 1, 2026

Taiwan receives first new F-16 fighter jets

1 sourcesOct 3, 2026

U.S. to put missile system on island near Taiwan for drills

1 sourcesOct 2, 2026

Taiwan takes a page from Ukraine’s playbook in steeling society for an invasion

1 sourcesOct 1, 2026

Taiwan taps US tech for sea drones to fend off China's vast maritime fleet

1 sourcesSep 30, 2026

China Coast Guard patrols waters east of Taiwan island; move signals warning to separatist forces, expert says

1 sourcesSep 29, 2026

Trump tries to sell US weapons to Xi despite China-Taiwan invasion fears

1 sourcesSep 28, 2026

Taiwan must deepen drone cooperation with democratic partners, president says