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Belarus under Lukashenko deepens military integration with Russia through joint nuclear drills while facing heightened Ukrainian threat perceptions, as the regime pursues economic diversification within the EAEU and engages in diplomatic overtures to Macron and Zelenskyy.
May 2026
Week of May 18, compared to 12-week average
authoritative and favourable
Economy is under pressure from Western sanctions but seeks growth through EAEU integration and regional trade deals. Lukashenko urged closer AI cooperation in the Eurasian Union and named macroeconomic stability as a basic goal, while Belarus and Sverdlovsk Region aim to double trade turnover.
Lukashenko dominates the political landscape with a flurry of diplomatic engagements, including calls with Macron and a visit to Kazakhstan, while maintaining a confrontational stance toward Ukraine and Armenia. He joked about a Russia trip on Victory Day, urged Moldova not to cut ties with former partners, and called Macron an 'aksakal' to urge dialogue with Putin.
Security posture is defined by joint nuclear drills with Russia, which Lukashenko says pleased Russian generals, while Ukraine warns of a potential attack from the Belarus front. Lukashenko denied Belarusian troops are in Ukraine and told Macron the conditions for nuclear weapons use.
Society shows signs of controlled normalization: the WKF lifted restrictions on Belarusian athletes, and state symbols returned for gymnasts, while the fate of jailed dissident Raman Pratasevich remains unresolved. Lukashenko called interfaith peace Belarus's brand and proposed returning remains of Soviet soldiers.
