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March 2026
Week of Mar 16, compared to 12-week average
Regional connectivity is expanding through new air routes and energy diplomacy. Turkish Airlines began direct Istanbul-Yerevan flights, Red Wings resumed Yekaterinburg-Baku service, and the EU turned to Azerbaijan for gas after Qatar cut supplies. A national carrier also established a new route via Afghanistan and Azerbaijan to Europe.
Diplomatic relations with Iran are severely strained, centering on security incidents and mutual accusations. Azerbaijan evacuated its diplomats from Iran, sent humanitarian aid amid regional escalation, and a French national was jailed in Baku for spying. High-level diplomatic exchanges with Turkey, Belarus, and Georgia's Prime Minister continued.
A direct security crisis with Iran is underway, featuring drone attacks on Nakhchivan airport and foiled terror plots. Azerbaijan blamed Iran for the attack and promised a response, while also claiming to have dismantled an Iranian spy cell and foiled plots targeting a pipeline, a synagogue, and the Israeli embassy.
The region serves as a critical evacuation corridor for foreign nationals fleeing conflict in Iran, with Armenia and Azerbaijan facilitating exits. Concurrently, Georgia is navigating a period of societal transition following the death of its long-reigning Patriarch Ilia II.