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Venezuela's political landscape is defined by a contested transition, with the US-backed acting government consolidating power while facing pro-Maduro protests, as the economy pivots toward US-aligned oil investment following sanctions relief.
February 2026
Week of Feb 16, compared to 12-week average
critical but not uniformly hostile
Venezuela's economy is pivoting toward US-aligned oil investment following sanctions relief. The state opened its oil sector to private investment, with Exxon and Chevron assessing opportunities, and the US paid $500 million for an oil shipment. This shift occurs as the US eases sanctions and President Trump eyes a visit to advance an oil plan.
Venezuelan politics is dominated by a contested US-backed transition following Maduro's capture. The acting president asserts Maduro remains the legitimate leader while engaging with the US, which reopened its embassy and sent a top military commander. The government passed an amnesty law to free political prisoners, even as Argentina seeks Maduro's extradition.
Venezuela's security apparatus is conducting joint operations with the US against the former Maduro government. Authorities arrested Maduro ally Alex Saab in a joint operation, and US reports detail the Pentagon's use of AI from Anthropic in the raid to capture Maduro. An opposition leader was kidnapped shortly after release from prison.
Venezuelan society is polarized between pro-Maduro mobilization and a government prisoner release program. Thousands rallied demanding Maduro's return, with street protests erupting a month after his capture. Concurrently, the government freed hundreds of political prisoners, including activist Javier Tarazona, and promised a return for exiles.
