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Canada under Prime Minister Mark Carney is executing a sharp strategic pivot towards China, triggering severe economic and political retaliation from the Trump administration, while internal unity is strained by a resurgent Alberta separatist movement.
January 2026
Week of Jan 26, compared to 12-week average
No deviations this week.All weeks this month are quiet.
Top sources covering Canada
Canada's economy is under direct threat from the US over its China trade pivot. The Trump administration has issued multiple threats of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and decertification for Canadian aircraft, while the TSX crashed over 3% amid the tensions. This follows Canada's decision to cut tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and canola, a move the US warned it would regret.
The political landscape is defined by a high-stakes confrontation between Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump. Carney announced a new strategic partnership with China and publicly asserted Canada's independence from the US, leading Trump to withdraw Canada's invitation to his 'Board of Peace' and share AI-generated maps claiming Canadian territory. Officials have warned the US to respect sovereignty after Alberta separatists met with the Trump administration.
Security planning is dominated by contingency planning against the United States, marking a profound crisis in the alliance. The military has reportedly modeled a response to a hypothetical US invasion, including building a 'mujahideen model', while simultaneously considering a troop deployment to Greenland as a show of NATO solidarity. Canada is also pursuing a leadership role in a new multinational defence bank.
The dominant societal tension is a resurgent push for Alberta separatism, actively encouraged by external actors. Separatists are recycling unfounded quotes and pushing back against a wave of national unity, with the movement's bid in the oil hub being watched by Trump allies. This internal fracture overshadows other issues like Indigenous calls for action on homelessness.
