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February 2026
Week of Feb 23, compared to 12-week average
Economic activity is centered on foreign-led resource extraction and regional trade corridors. Turkey has initiated ultra-deepwater oil drilling off Somalia's coast, while Somaliland is actively promoting its critical minerals. Business between Kenya and Somalia is increasing, supported by diaspora investment.
Regional politics are dominated by the diplomatic crisis over Somaliland's international recognition. Israel's engagement with Somaliland, including a planned presidential visit, is vehemently rejected by Turkey's president and Somalia's president. Ethiopia's leadership is simultaneously pursuing a seaport vision involving Eritrea, raising bilateral tensions.
Security is deteriorating with a high risk of renewed war in Ethiopia's Tigray region, involving Ethiopia, the TPLF, and Eritrea. Concurrently, Kenya is preparing to reopen its border with Somalia after 15 years, a move accompanied by lingering security fears. Ethiopia is also reportedly training RSF fighters in a secret camp.
Society is under severe strain from a deepening humanitarian crisis, particularly in Somalia due to drought, prompting major EU and UK aid allocations. A parallel tension involves state suppression of information, evidenced by Ethiopia revoking Reuters journalists' accreditation amid fears of a new crisis in Tigray.