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The Horn of Africa is defined by a dual-track crisis: Ethiopia faces a severe risk of renewed civil war in Tigray, while regional tensions spike over Israel's diplomatic outreach to Somaliland, drawing condemnation from Arab and Muslim states and fracturing Somalia's foreign relations.
January 2026
Week of Jan 26, compared to 12-week average
Ethiopia is pursuing major infrastructure expansion while seeking international financial support, but regional instability threatens aviation and trade corridors. Ethiopian Airlines ordered nine Boeing 787 Dreamliners and Ethiopia began construction of 'Africa's biggest airport'. However, flights to Tigray were suspended due to clashes, and Port Assab became a flashpoint in Ethiopia-Eritrea relations.
Regional diplomacy is fractured by Israel's engagement with Somaliland, triggering a unified Arab and Muslim bloc condemnation and straining Somalia's alliances. The Israeli foreign minister's visit to Somaliland sparked diplomatic tensions, leading Arab and Muslim nations to condemn the outreach. In response, Somalia scrapped agreements with the UAE, while Egypt and Turkey discussed the Horn of Africa crises.
Security is deteriorating with a high risk of renewed conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region, marked by active clashes and external military posturing. Clashes between government troops and Tigrayan forces erupted, leading to flight suspensions and drone strikes that killed one. Concurrently, Ethiopia unveiled newly acquired Russian drones and Turkey was reported to deploy F-16 jets in Somalia.
Society is dominated by acute humanitarian distress in Somalia and the destabilizing impact of U.S. immigration policy on the Somali diaspora. A sharp rise in malnutrition cases and preventable diseases was reported in Somalia, compounded by a deepening drought-driven water crisis. Simultaneously, the U.S. ended temporary protected status for thousands of Somalis, setting a March deportation deadline.