Brazil Election Polls Show Tight Races in September 2026

In September 2026, polls in Brazil show close contests for president and São Paulo governor. An Atlas/Bloomberg poll has Lula at 47.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.4% in a second round, while a Quaest poll for São Paulo's first round puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 34% and Lula at 31%. For São Paulo governor, Atlas/Estadão shows Tarcísio at 55% against Haddad's 41% in the first round.

For São Paulo's Senate seat, Quaest shows Derrite at 16%, Marina Silva at 13%, and Simone Tebet at 12%. Allies are trying to convince Lula to join a first-round debate as Flávio gains, but he is resisting. Estadão and FAAP held a Senate debate. Separately, a lobbyist friend of Lulinha made deposits to a secretary and a minister's ceremonial chief.