Brazil Polls Show Tight Runoff Between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

In Brazil, a Quaest poll released in September 2026 shows Flavio Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40% in a potential second-round runoff, the first time Flavio has been numerically ahead of Lula since April. In the first-round scenario, Lula leads with 36% while Flavio has 31%, narrowing the gap.

Economist Mauricio Moura said in an interview that a first-round victory for Flavio Bolsonaro would not be a surprise. Lula may skip all first-round debates. The Supreme Court (STF) resumed a defamation trial against Eduardo Bolsonaro, and the silence of the military has been noted as the court crisis affects the future of those convicted over the Bolsonaro coup case.