Lula-Trump chemistry cools after new US tariffs

In Brazil on July 20, 2026, the “chemistry” between Lula and Trump cooled after new US tariffs. Lula challenged Marco Rubio to set up an election committee for Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil (“We will defeat all of you”) and used a defense of national sovereignty at a convention that sealed the PDT's support. Ahead of the party conventions, Lula has settled Minas Gerais, with Goiás still pending, and Patrus Ananias confirmed he will run for the Minas Gerais governorship on a ticket backing Lula. Flávio Bolsonaro is still negotiating platforms and a running mate.

A Quaest poll found that 55% believe Lula will win and 25% believe Flávio Bolsonaro will. If Flávio stays isolated, he would get 20% less TV time than Lula. His decision to reject a Federal Police escort put allies on alert. An ally says Trump's government granted Eduardo Bolsonaro a green card to live in the US. Michelle Bolsonaro said the “right in Ceará is sold” after Ciro said he is weighing backing Renan or Caiado for the presidency.