Turkey

Turkey's economy is focused on defending the lira and managing regional energy flows. The government is eyeing its $135 billion gold reserves for currency defense, while oil prices eased as Iraq resumed exports via Turkey's Ceyhan terminal. The broader regional energy security threat from the Iran war persists as a backdrop.

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Turkish politics are defined by judicial pressure on the opposition and active, multi-vector diplomacy. The trial of a prominent opposition mayor began, a case critics call political. Foreign Minister Fidan discussed the Iran war and energy projects with Lavrov, while the EU proposed a Black Sea model for Hormuz security and Meloni spoke with Erdogan about the Middle East crisis.

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Turkey's security is dominated by an acute missile threat from Iran and a heightened military posture. NATO air defenses, including a US Patriot system deployed to Turkey, shot down multiple Iranian missiles entering Turkish airspace over several incidents. Concurrently, Turkey deployed F-16 fighter jets and air defense systems to Northern Cyprus, and a tanker carrying Russian oil was hit by a naval drone in the Black Sea.

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• 22Tanker carrying Russian oil hit by naval drone in Black Sea
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Turkish society shows a dominant tension between government-aligned institutions and opposition supporters, currently in a phase of public mobilization. Thousands of supporters of opposition figure Imamoglu rallied in Istanbul. This political polarization unfolds against a backdrop of domestic tragedies, including a gas explosion causing building collapses in Istanbul and a helicopter crash in Qatar involving Turkish personnel.

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