Baltic States in April 2026: the most important developments in security
In the Baltic States in April 2026, security news was dominated by pressure from Russia and by doubts over US arms deliveries. Moscow threatened the Baltic states over drone flights, accusing them of helping Ukraine strike Russia, and on 10 April the three states denied giving Ukraine access to their airspace for attacks. Estonia urged Ukraine not to breach its airspace in drone attacks on Russian oil. A former Russian defence minister threatened the Baltics and Finland over Ukrainian drone operations. On 21 April NATO intercepted Russian military aircraft flying over the Baltic Sea, according to a French team. A study suggested Russia could conquer the Baltic states in 90 days.
The Iran war affected supplies. On 21 April the Estonian minister said the US had paused Estonia's ammunition supplies until the end of the Iran conflict, and on 22 April Yle reported that US arms deliveries to Estonia were suspended. Minister Hanno Pevkur said Estonia was looking at larger missile procurement to compensate, and an MP suggested Estonia might seek US approval to buy ammunition elsewhere. Estonia's minister nevertheless expressed confidence that the US would help defend against a Russian attack, and Estonia signalled willingness to host more US troops. Lithuania did not rule out a larger US troop presence and considered a logistics and demining role in Strait of Hormuz security.
The states also reshaped their own defences. Estonia cancelled a combat vehicle purchase to redirect funds to air and drone defence, and Latvia's defence minister Sprūds said the country must build drone interception capability. Lithuania began receiving NASAMS air defence systems, inaugurated a new military division and assigned key brigades. A plan for a major ammunition plant in Estonia was announced. Estonia said detaining Russian tankers in the Baltic Sea was too risky, and the number of shadow fleet ships anchored off Estonia halved. Estonia reported catching a record number of Russian collaborators in 2025. In Lithuania, a trial began of five men accused of sending exploding parcels for Russia, and Vilnius asked for the extradition of a Russia-linked man who planned political killings.
by WorldBrief & Maksim Micheliov | AI-generated summary
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