South Asia

Overview

Southeast Asia is caught between deepening Chinese and Russian engagement and domestic political-legal shocks, as Indonesia's MSCI review and regional economic restructuring signal investor unease.

June 2026

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Strategic theaters involving South Asia

Editorially curated conflicts and rivalries South Asia is party to. Open a panel to see the specific friction points inside it.

Friction Point

Myanmar civil conflict

Myanmar has been in political and armed conflict since the military removed the elected government in February 2021. The armed forces, organised politically around the Union Solidarity and Development Party, hold central power; a parallel National Unity Government, allied People's Defence Forces and long-established ethnic armed organisations contest military control across much of the country. In elections held under military administration the military-aligned bloc won most seats, and former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi remains in detention. Fighting includes airstrikes, ground offensives and clashes near the borders with Thailand, China and India. The border regions host large scam-compound and human-trafficking operations whose victims and proceeds cross the wider region, prompting Chinese prosecutions and cross-border enforcement. China, Russia, India and ASEAN states maintain varying degrees of engagement with the authorities in Naypyidaw.

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Friction Point

Thailand–Cambodia border conflict

Thailand and Cambodia contest their shared 817-kilometre land border and an overlapping maritime zone in the Gulf of Thailand. The land dispute centres on 11th-century Khmer temples and their surrounding ground -- Preah Vihear, awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice in 1962 and again in 2013, and the Ta Moan and Ta Krabey complexes and the tri-border "Emerald Triangle", which remain undemarcated. Boundary work proceeds under a 2000 memorandum (MOU 43) through a Joint Boundary Committee; a separate 2001 memorandum (MOU 44) governs talks on the overlapping maritime claims area, where the island of Koh Kood and seabed oil and gas are at stake. Armed clashes along the frontier in 2025 killed soldiers and civilians and displaced tens of thousands before a ceasefire brokered with outside mediation. Since then the border crossings have been closed at times, both armies have traded accusations of truce violations and troop build-ups, and Cambodia has moved parts of the maritime question toward the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Malaysia, the Philippines as ASEAN chair, China and the United States have all been involved in de-escalation.

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South Asia

June 2026

Strategic theaters involving South Asia

Myanmar civil conflict

Thailand–Cambodia border conflict

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