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March 2026
Week of Feb 23, compared to 12-week average
The economy is crippled by severed trade routes and threatened aid. The conflict with Pakistan has halted critical Central Asian trade routes, while the US warns that Taliban policies threaten international aid. A new air route via Afghanistan offers a minor logistical development.
The Taliban's diplomatic isolation is intensifying as China mediates the Pakistan conflict. The US designated Afghanistan as a sponsor of wrongful detention, and the Taliban installed a new diplomat in Germany without notification. China is the primary external actor, repeatedly urging dialogue between Afghanistan and Pakistan and welcoming the temporary ceasefire.
Security is defined by a cycle of deadly cross-border airstrikes with Pakistan, temporarily paused for Ramadan. Pakistan conducted airstrikes on a Kabul hospital that the Taliban says killed hundreds. A temporary multi-day ceasefire for Ramadan and Eid was announced, and the Taliban released an American detainee.
Society is under severe strain from the Taliban's systematic oppression of women and a natural disaster. Taliban edicts force women to give birth outside hospitals and the regime carried out over 1,100 floggings and public executions in the past year. Concurrently, floods and landslides have killed dozens, compounding the humanitarian crisis.